What Does a Bailout Look Like? « Veritas Vos Liberabit

Faith and Freedom July 14, 2009

The archives of what we are calling the Old Freeman are now complete, more than 100 issues of this extremely rare periodical. Today we are putting up a publication hardly anyone even knows about. It was called Faith and Freedom, from the early 1950s. Talk about the memory hole! And yet it was a haven for many outstanding libertarian writers, […]

Brand Confidence and the Economics of Good Will July 14, 2009

Good will is the renown a business acquires on account of past achievements. It implies the expectation that the bearer of the good will in the future will live up to his earlier standards. Good will is not a phenomenon appearing only in business relations. It is present in all social relations. FULL ARTICLE

Robert Frank Knows What Is Best For You July 14, 2009

Beware of economics columnists for The New York Times. The days when Mises and Henry Hazlitt wrote for the paper have long since passed. Nowadays, Paul Krugman in his columns seems determined to disguise the undoubted intelligence that won him a Nobel Prize. Robert Frank, also a distinguished theorist, contributes a column to the Times as well and d […]

Stop Signs and Liberty July 14, 2009

Something as seemingly innocuous as a stop sign can become the occasion for the use of terrible violence and terrible oppression. And think about it: we are talking about local government that is especially sensitive to public opinion. If we see corruption here, what about at the national level, where the citizens are nothing but an abstraction? […]

"No One Saw This Coming": Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models July 14, 2009

That is the title of a new paper on the financial crisis by Dirk Bezemer of Groningen University in the Netherlands, arguing that in fact many people saw it coming. It's not Austrian analysis, but the Austrians do receive kudos. See especially the appendix starting on p. 35. Thanks to Bernard Hickey.

Forex Blog

Chinese Yuan Poised for Appreciation July 13, 2009

I toyed with today’s headline for a while, given that an equally cogent case could be made for either “Chinese Yuan Poised for Significant Appreciation” or “Chinese Yuan Poised for Stability.” Let’s face it- when it comes to to the Chinese Yuan, it’s a complete guessing game, since you’re not only dealing with […]

Investors Disagree over Emerging Markets July 11, 2009

Since touching a low in March, the emerging market class has risen by 50%, according to one measure. This led to concerns that another bubble was forming, a swift pullback ensued. The bulls, however, point out that valuations remain well below 2007-2008 bubble levels and that according to some measures, fundamentals are actually quite strong. They [...]

Risk Aversion Edges Up July 9, 2009

Over the last few weeks, the stock market rally has fizzled and commodities prices have cooled off. It’s not clear what triggered this sudden surge in introspection (I would call it reasonableness). Regardless, the markets are now wondering out loud whether the optimism of the second quarter wasn’t a bit naive. After all, there still isn’t […]

Inflation Update: US Prices Creep up in May July 8, 2009

The debate over US inflation continues to be waged- in academic circles, among economists, and in the financial markets. There is no still no clear consensus as to the likelihood that the inflation will flare up at some point, as a result of the Fed’s easy monetary policy and the government’s record budget deficits. While [...]

Interview with Sean Hyman: “Trade with the trend” July 7, 2009

As part of our ongoing series, printed below is an interview with Sean Hyman, of World Currency Watch. [Blog found here]. Sean has collected over 15 years of experience as a stockbroker, manager, and trader, working for enterprises as varied as a technical analysis “call in” line for their million dollar+ clients and active traders, [...]

What Does a Bailout Look Like?

Posted on July 19, 2008 by freemarketman

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« Wages, Unemployment, and Inflation Why the Mania Phase in Gold May Be Upon Us »

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

What's the Real CPI? July 14, 2009

Inquiring minds are asking "What is the Real CPI?" It's a good question, too. However, you can find many widely differing opinions. For example, you will get one answer from the government, a different answer from sites like Shadowstats, and a third opinion from me.First let's look at John Williams' Shadowstats .That's an intere […]

Housing Update - How Far To The Bottom? July 13, 2009

Inquiring minds have been asking for another housing update.Using the Japan Nationwide Land Prices model as my guide, here is how I have called things in real time.click on chart for sharper imageMy previous update was was on December 1 ,2008 in a post with the same name as this one Housing Update - How Far To The Bottom?I just added the Summer 2009 arrow. H […]

California Politicians Making Progress but "Biggest and Hardest Decisions Remain" July 13, 2009

There is still no breakthrough as California Politicians Negotiate to Close Deficit.California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders negotiated through the weekend, making progress while reporting no breakthrough in solving the state’s $26 billion budget deficit that’s left the most-populous U.S. state issuing IOUs to its creditors.The meeti […]

Japan's Robots Join Ranks Of Unemployed July 13, 2009

Robots are the most efficient workers in the world. Moreover, they do not complain about hours worked, ask for raises, or seek collective bargaining agreements.Nonetheless, In Japan, Machines for Work and Play Are Idle .Japan’s legions of robots, the world’s largest fleet of mechanized workers, are being idled as the country suffers its deepest recession in […]

Health Care Bill Will Raise Taxes, Then Raise Them Again July 12, 2009

A revolt by "blue-dog" supposedly fiscal-conservative Democrats threatened to wreck Obama's health care package. The "solution" was to raise taxes and if that does not bring in enough money (it's wont), then raise them again until it does.Inquiring minds are reading Health-Care Bill Would Tax High-Income Americans for details of […]

Calculated Risk

More Inventory Correction July 14, 2009

The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report from the Census Bureau today showed more evidence of declining inventories. Click on graph for larger image in new window.The Census Bureau reported: Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,368. […]

Retail Sales in June July 14, 2009

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales are off 9.6% from June 2008 (retail ex food services decreased 10.3%). Excluding autos and gas, retail sales fell again in June.The following graph shows the year-over-year change in nominal and real retail sales since 1993. Click on graph for larger image in ne […]

Report: Private-Equity Firms Bidding for Corus Assets July 14, 2009

Just a reminder, with BankUnited the stories of private-equity bidders appeared on Tuesday May 19th and BankUnited was seized by the FDIC two days later.From the WSJ: Starwood Enters Bidding for Corus Assets Barry Sternlicht's Starwood Capital Group, a private-equity firm specializing in real-estate investments, is bidding on assets of Corus Bankshares […]

Appraisal Update July 14, 2009

There have been quite a few complaints about the new appraisal rules from real estate agents, homebuilders and mortgage brokers. Last Friday Freddie Mac updated their appraisal guidelines and clarified that the appraiser is not required to use distressed sales (REOs, short sales): The appraiser’s selection of comparable sales is crucial to providing an accur […]

NY Magazine: The Billyburg Bust July 13, 2009

From David Amsden at New York Magazine: The Billyburg Bust (ht Jennifer). A few excerpts: With sales across Brooklyn down a staggering 57 percent from a year ago, Williamsburg, with its high density of new construction, has taken on an ominous disposition. Walk down virtually any block and you’ll come across an amenity-laden building that sits nearly empty: […]

Zero Hedge

Merrill's RateLab Retorts To Zero Hedge July 14, 2009

Zero Hedge's good-natured critique of Merrill Lynch's most recent RateLab issue seems to have circulated. To wit, its author, Harley Bassman had this to say:Under the rubric of "All P.R. is good P.R....." .......I can add that I have been called worse ! It was brought to my attention by a friend (yes, I do have a few, though they are mos […]

David Faber On Goldman CRE Write Downs And REIT Pain July 14, 2009

David Faber discusses Goldman's real estate losses, and draws some conclusions about the upcoming pain for REITs. And yet, thanks to Goldman, which has been instrumental in upgrading and issuing stock for the REITs (and having a massive blow out quarter thanks in large part to its REIT underwriting activity), the sector is doing unprecedentedly well. Su […]

Economic Confidence Slide Accelerates July 14, 2009

The latest economic confidence numbers out of Investors Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. As expected, reality always catch up with fiction.

Some More Forward Risk Arbitrage July 14, 2009

VIX-VXV hits steepest levels in a long time. Short-term vol being driven down by dispersion traders (selling correlation), cyclical/seasonal pressures, and risk transfer. Then again all these synthetic risk measures are likely screwed up beyond belief.

US Sliding Into Socialism July 14, 2009

Presumably this is news. Compliments of Jim DeMint and CNBC.

Minyanvile

Playing the Big Interest in Banks July 14, 2009

In my morning note for OptionSmith last Friday I laid out the possibility for a big up day writing: “If the S&P presses below 875 but fails to bring in a fresh wave of buying there could be a sharp snapback rally. When earnings hit full stride next week all it will take is one or 2 good reports and a positive outlook to bring money off the sidelin […]

Ten Most Horrific Commercial Jingles of All Time July 14, 2009

Asset Allocation: Protect the Value of Your Portfolio July 14, 2009

Green Shoots, Meet Lawnmower July 14, 2009

Spreads have been quite resilient lately given the last 3 weeks of equity market action. The corporate investment-grade (IG) action speaks to more of a “no growth with heightened risk” scenario. Click to enlargeHigh-yield (HY) is also saying the same yet still pricing in a much higher than normal implied level of risk -- although nothing like it […]

Ticker Shock: Four Reasons Dell Still Looks Strong Long-Term July 14, 2009

Five Reasons to Buy Take-Two Stock Now July 14, 2009

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) cut its full-year outlook by a pretty fat margin after the close yesterday citing the delay of the highly-anticipated Bioshock 2 weak sales of older catalog titles and slower retail order patterns. It sounds pretty dire but I used today's dip to begin a position in Take-Two. 1. On August 2 2007 Take-Two delayed its flagship […]

Answers: Goldman Sachs Sold to You? July 14, 2009

So Goldman executives sold $700 000 000 worth of stock during the period when they received $10 billion in TARP money? Seriously? Seriously? I’m all for compensating financial professionals—we need to incent people if there is to be a capital market construct for our kids—but shouldn’t that have been regulated when the bill was being […]

Trading Lessons: Never Turn a Hedge Into a Trade July 14, 2009

One of the greatest memories from my youth is post-game analysis. Growing up I was consumed by basketball and I’ll never forget spending hours with my teammates and coaches breaking down the play-by-play and analyzing game film. There was always a humbling truth about reviewing video because regardless of what you thought you'd done in the game t […]

S&P Watch: Will It Retrace to 760? July 14, 2009

At-Risk Sports Teams: The WNBA July 14, 2009

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